Lock It In or Wait? Building a Fuel Plan That Works
Jan 16, 2026
Written by: Isaac Imsland, Vice President of Energy
One of the most common questions I hear from members is “Should I be locking in fuel now, or waiting to see what the market does?”
The answer is that no one can perfectly predict energy markets. Global events, weather, geopolitical tensions, refinery outages, and supply disruptions can all move prices quickly and sometimes unexpectedly. That’s why the goal isn’t to time the market perfectly, but to make energy decisions that hold up no matter what direction prices move.
A good place to start is understanding a few key questions: How do global events affect your fuel price? News overseas can move markets quickly, even if nothing has changed locally. What energy costs should you be budgeting for in the next 6-12 months? Locking in a portion of your fuel needs can help stabilize expenses, while leaving some volume open allows flexibility. What questions should you be asking your energy team? Things like how much to protect, what tools are available to manage risk, and where efficiencies might exist are all important conversations to have.
January 2026 Energy Market Update
Oil markets have been moving recently due to ongoing tensions in Iran, which create concern about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. When uncertainty rises in that region, prices often react quickly. At the same time, Venezuela has started sending more oil back into the global market, which adds supply and can help limit price spikes. These two forces are somewhat offsetting each other – geopolitical risk on one side and added supply on the other – keeping markets active and somewhat volatile.
Closer to home diesel demand in the Midwest has been softening. Fewer gallons are being consumed compared to the peak fall season. This puts some downward pressure on local pricing. Meanwhile, the heating oil demand in the northwest has increased due to colder weather, which is tightening supply in that region and impacting pricing relationship between markets. These regional differences are why basis levels can move independently of overall crude prices.
The IAS Energy team is here if you’d like to review your fuel strategy, discuss budgeting, or explore ways to better manage price risk